DraftAce Blog

Year round coverage of the NFL Draft.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

DraftAce Top 25: Week 6

Not too many changes this week, but the one big mover was Miami. After last week's loss to Virginia Tech I thought Miami was a fluke. Their win over Florida State no longer looks impressive and the Georgia Tech victory doesn't mean all that much. Defeated Oklahoma was impressive however. Clearly this isn't the same Sooners team that we were expecting to see in the preseason, but they still have a dominant defense and a balanced offense and are still a legitimate top 20 team. With an easy remaining schedule, the Hurricanes could potentially run the table (but realistically they'll probably lose to Virginia and derail all the talk that The U is back).

Oregon also climbs back into the top 10 this week. At this point in the season you have to start forgiving early season losses, especially road losses. A road loss to a ranked opponent on opening weekend doesn't mean that much at this point and Oregon is cruising along right now.

I've also finally moved LSU into the top 25. I'm still not sold on the Tigers as a national title contender, but their defense was dominant against Georgia. We'll find out next week against Florida just how good the Tigers really are.

I couldn't believe last week that Auburn wasn't ranked in the polls. No, they aren't a threat to win the SEC, but their offense is much improved and their defense is at least adequate. Oh, and they're undefeated. How can you rank similar teams such as Ole Miss ahead of Auburn despite bad losses?

Sneaking into the top 25 this week is Wisconsin. Now, I don't really like the Badgers, but you have to give credit where credit is due. They haven't beaten anyone of note, but they are undefeated and John Clay has emerged as one of the most powerful running backs in the nation. If they pull off an upset over Ohio State next weekend they'll shoot up the rankings.

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Sunday, September 27, 2009

DraftAce Top 25 - Week 5

And I thought last weeks rankings were hard to figure out...

Florida and Alabama hang on to the top two rankings, with Texas right behind them at number three. I don't forsee any changes in this order until one of them loses a game.

I placed Virginia Tech at No. 4 because they are clearly the cream of the crop in the ACC and have only lost to Alabama on a neutral field. This may be the best Hokies team in a number of years and they just might be able to run the table in the ACC.

I moved Oklahoma back into the top five this week. Sam Bradford could return for this weekend's game against Miami, and will almost certainly be ready to face Texas. If the Sooners keep winning, that loss to BYU will easily be chalked up to a fluke due to Bradford's injury.

Cincinnati has climbed up to No. 6 this week and I don't see them falling out of the top 10 for the rest of the season. The Bearcats should be favored in every game from here on out, and its hard to imagine them losing more than one game (if that). Unfortunately, even with an undefeated season they won't have enough quality wins to challenge for the national title.

A number of teams (USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Georgia, etc) benefited from all the losses in the top 10 this week. They didnt' really do anything to move up, but took care of business against weaker opponents.

Houston did improve its resume, however, with a comeback victory against Texas Tech. With two wins against the Big 12, Houston has a legitimate case to crash the BCS party if they win out. And after beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State its hard to imagine that teams like UTEP and Tulane will give them any trouble. Their toughest remaining game will be against Southern Miss.

The rest of the top 25 is a jumbled mess. Iowa, unranked a week ago, climbs up to No. 13. Its a shocking rise, but they're 4-0 and have a win at Penn State. They have to be the favorite to finished 2nd to Ohio State in the Big Ten after this weekend.

I have Boise State at No. 15, despite their No. 5 ranking in the AP Poll. Anyone who thinks Boise State is a top-five team is certifiably insane. This team simply isn't that good. Their defense is atrocious and the offense isn't what it has been in year's past. They're living off reputation and one decent win against Oregon. They'll probably go undefeated and get slaughtered by a team like Virginia Tech or Oklahoma in a BCS bowl. I'm all for non-BCS teams getting some love, but Boise State is, at best, the third best team from a non-BCS conference (behind TCU and Houston).

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Sunday, September 20, 2009

DraftAce Top 25 - Week 4

The only things I've learned from the first three weeks of college football is that we don't know anything yet. So far this season nothing has gone as expected, and it has completely shaken up the polls. As a result, I tried to toss aside all my preseason expectations (well, most of them at least) and rank the teams based on what they have done this season.

Florida maintains the number one slot, but Alabama is knocking on the door. There was no reason for the Gators to struggle against Tennessee this weekend and their weak offensive performance makes me think that the Gators likely won't run the table this year.

Alabama moves up to number two, followed by Penn State, mainly because Texas has been less than impressive this year. The Longhorns have some issues to work out on offense. Colt McCoy has not looked like a Heisman contender and unless he steps up his game, Texas will continue to fall.

Shooting all the way to No. 5 is Miami. I'm not entirely on the Hurricanes bandwagon, but they do have the most impressive pair of wins this season against Florida State and Georgia Tech. We'll find out in the next two weeks if Miami is for real as they face Virginia Tech and Oklahoma.

Cincinnati also climbs into the top 10 this week. No team has exceeded expectations like the Bearcats this year. With a win at Oregon State under their belts, an undefeated season is certainly a realistic goal in Cincy. The Bearcats have a very favorable schedule; their toughest remaining game is likely at Pittsburgh in the season finale. They should run away with the Big East and return to the BCS, this time as a legitimate top 10 team.

Oklahoma's position at No. 9 may be controversial considering how BYU was slaughtered by Florida State on Saturday. However, I have to overlook the loss to BYU to an extent due to Bradfords injury. If Bradford returns at full health, that loss can be forgiven. If he doesn't, then the loss will need to be taken more seriously.

TCU now takes over the top spot among teams from non-BCS conferences. I am not at all impressed by Boise State, and think they are overrated in the polls. The Broncos have absolutely no defense, which certainly isn't the case with TCU. I am going to treat Boise State as I did Hawaii in 2007. If the run the table, they should be considered for a BCS bid, but I am probably going to keep them in the 12-18 range as long as they keep winning. Should they lose, however, they'll fall out of the rankings for good. TCU on the other hand is a more legitimate threat to make the BCS. They have a solid defense, and balanced offense and play a tougher schedule than the Broncos. TCU will get a moderate test this weekend against Clemson.

I moved Houston up to No. 16 this weekend despite their bye week. Basically I'm admitting my error last week in leaving them at No. 24 after a win over Oklahoma State. Like Boise State, however, even if Houston keeps winning they'll struggle to climb much higher than they already are.

LSU remains one of the teams that I feel much differently about than most of the voters in the polls. I have been unimpressed by their offense in wins over Washington, Vanderbilt and LA-Lafayette. We won't know if LSU is for real until Oct. 3 at Georgia.

Auburn joins the top 25 this week after its win over West Virginia. The Tigers may have one of the top rushing attacks in the game and their defense is much improved. Gene Chizik could complete a remarkable turnaround for the Tigers in his first year with the program.

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Sunday, September 13, 2009

DraftAce Top 25 - Week 3

Two weeks of football are under our belts and the top 25 is starting to take shape. There's still plenty of movement this week though, as we try to sort out who's for real and who's simply taking advantage of weak early-season opponents.

Florida remains at the top of my rankings, but there's a new team at No. 2. Really, no one deserves the No. 2 slot this week, as all the challengers struggled. Texas was losing to Wyoming late in the 2nd quarter, USC's offense was completely inept against Ohio State, and Alabama took far too long to put away FIU. The nod goes to Texas however, as I believe they are the next-most balanced team behind Florida. Alabama and USC have great defenses, but neither has the offensive firepower to compete with Florida and Texas.

Like USC, Georgia Tech also fell a spot despite winning. I have serious questions about the Yellow Jackets after Thursday's win over Clemson. If you take away a few big plays early in the game, Clemson would have won easily. I still like Georgia Tech, but their defense may not be as good as I originally thought.

Ohio State, despite a loss, didn't move in this week's rankings. I don't like dropping teams when they lose games that they should lose. OSU entered the game ranked lower than USC for a reason - because we all expected them to lose. So why should they fall further after they meet expectations? Additionally, Ohio State kept it much closer than I anticipated, solidifying its place just outside the top 10.

The biggest mover this week is Cincinnati. No, not because they beat up on Southeast Missouri, but because no one ahead of them showed up on Saturday. Cincinnati's offense appears to be for real and they have emerged as the clear favorite in the Big East.

Once again, I have LSU ranked 21st while the polls will likely have them in the top 10. As I asked last week, what have they done to deserve a top 10 ranking? In close wins against Washington and Vanderbilt, the Tigers have barely looked like a top 25 team, much less a top 10 squad.

Two new teams appear in the rankings this week: Michigan and Houston. I'm not completely sold on Houston, but a win over a top-5 team on the road needs to be rewarded. As for Michigan, they may actually be back. They're not ready to compete for a Big Ten title yet, but an 8-4 season could be a realistic goal at this point.

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Wednesday, September 9, 2009

DraftAce Top 25 - Week 2

Just one week into the season and we already have some major movement in the rankings.

The biggest mover of the week is BYU, which knocked off Oklahoma on Saturday. Heading into the weekend I would have said that a BYU victory would have put them in the top five, but Bradford's injury takes away from the win to an extent. Don't think BYU lucked into that win though; even with Bradford in the game, BYU was right in that game.

Among teams that won on the field, Ohio State was the biggest loser in my rankings. The Buckeyes stumbled to a win over Navy. However, it should be noted that Jim Tressel has a history of holding back the week before big games (see: game vs Ohio in 2008). We'll get a better feel for the Buckeyes this weekend against USC.

Oklahoma falls to No. 10, perhaps not as far others dropped them. The reason is Bradford's injury. Its just one loss, and if he returns healthy before their matchup with Texas, the Sooners could easily run the table.

The biggest different between my rankings the polls is LSU. I simply don't understand what makes LSU a top 10 team. I fully expect them to improve upon last year's disappointing season, but they are not a title contender and last weekend proved it. Washington - the same Washington that went 0-12 last year - put up a serious fight on Saturday and easily could have won that game. The Tigers are worthy of a spot in the top 25, but I can't see them losing any fewer than 3 games.

The three new faces in the crowd this week are Miami, Cincinnati and Missouri. All three looked impressive in big wins over the weekend. Miami may have finally found its quarterback in Jacory Harris. Cincinnati appears ready to run away with the Big East. And Blaine Gabbert has already made Missouri fans forget about Chase Daniel.

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Friday, September 4, 2009

DraftAce Top 25 - Preseason

So here's a look at the preseason top 25.

No. 1 is a no-brainer. The national champ returns nearly everyone of significance and is poised for a run at its third title in four years. The top four is rounded out by Oklahoma, USC and Texas. This group could easily be interchangeable, but the nod goes to Oklahoma at No. 2 due to last year's success.

The only team in my top ten that may come as a surprise is Georgia Tech. I believe they have the running game and the defense to cruise through the weak ACC. They're not a title contender, but certainly have a shot at the BCS.

North Carolina is another team I feel is underrated in most polls. Bruce Davis has established himself as a truly elite coach and if they get anything resembling consistent quarterback play, they'll be in the hunt for the ACC title.

Sorting out the non-BCS schools is difficult. BYU probably has the worst chance of going undefeated, but I think they're clearly the best of the group. They'll lose to Oklahoma by four touchdowns, but could run the table after that. Boise State may have the best shot to win out, but I'm not buying into their hype. The Broncos are a legitimate top 25 teams, but should not crack the top ten even if they go undefeated.

The wild card to the whole season could be Notre Dame. The Irish will be favored in every game except against USC. They probably aren't deserving of the BCS, but their schedule just may allow for it to happen.

Its sure to be another wild season. Strap on your seatbelts and get ready.

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