Myth Busters: Why Andre Smith Won't Be A Top 10 Pick?

For full disclosure, I didn't give Andre Smith a top 10 grade even before the combine. Offseason mishaps aside, I believe he lacks the quickness and general athleticism to play the left tackle position. He could be a very good right tackle or guard, but the money rewarded to top 10 picks is well above the pay grade for those positions.

However, even if you believe he can play left tackle and was deserving of a top 10 pick, his postseason workouts and shenanigans at the combine should have convinced you otherwise. In the end, Smith will fall out of the top 10 and possibly all the way into the late first round.

Here's why...

1) The supply outweighs the demand. Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe have already solidified their place in the top 10 and Michael Oher isn't far behind. Any team that is desperate for a tackle - perhaps the Bengals, Raiders or 49ers - should be able to get their hands one of those three players if they want. A simple trade up or a reach for Oher would get the job done. There is no need to take a major risk on a boom-or-bust prospect like Smith.

2) The character red flags are all over the place. He isn't the next Pacman Jones, but there is definitely reason to question his commitment to the game. When asked why he chose to play left tackle, he said it was because he learned it was the most well-paid position in the NFL. Smith has lacked the motivation to get in shape this offseason during the most important time of his life. Do you really believe he'll suddenly find motivation after he signs a multi-million dollar contract?

3) A combination of the first two: the teams that could make him a top 10 pick should know better than to take the risk. As I mentioned, the three teams most likely to make him a top 10 pick are the Bengals (can't take on another "character concern" for obvious reasons), the Raiders (want to avoid the next Robert Gallery) and 49ers (have experienced far too many 1st-round busts in recent years: Woods, Smith, Davis).

The earliest Smith will come off the board is No. 13 to Washington, but even that is no guarantee. His next best options are No. 16 to San Diego, No. 20 to Detroit (if they pass on Jason Smith) and No. 21 to Philadelphia.

Myth Busters: Why the Jaguars won't draft a receiver

Many mock drafts are popping up with Jeremy Maclin or Michael Crabtree landing in Jacksonville. Its a logical fit, but its not going to happen.

Here's why...

The Jaguars are building to win now. The addition of Tra Thomas and the attempts to land Tory Holt clearly demonstrate that. Its a commonly accepted belief, supported by numerous examples, that receivers don't reach their full potential until their 3rd year in the league. Jack Del Rio and the Jaguars aren't willing to wait for Crabtree or Maclin to develop. Additionally, top 10 picks are rewarded with a large sum of money, and it simply isn't a prudent financial move to tie up that much money in a player that may not have an impact until the contract is halfway over.

Another reason is the Jaguars' terrible luck with receivers in the first round. Reggie Williams and Matt Jones have been busts and the Jags don't want to get burned again. Projecting the success of receivers is a very inexact science, something that Jacksonville knows all too well.

In the end, the Jaguars will have too many other viable options to justify taking a receiver in the 1st round. B.J. Raji and Malcolm Jenkins are more relalistic and far safety options for the Jaguars.

Bengals Want A Running Back

The Bengals are showing a clear interest in running backs this offseason, and could be targeting one with their second-round pick. The Bengals have either met with, or will be meeting with, Chris Wells, Donald Brown, Rashad Jennings and LeSean McCoy.

While the Bengals are clearly doing their homework, Donald Brown appears to be the favorite and the mostly likely be available and worthy of their 2nd-round selection. The Bengals have reportedly mentioned him as a player they have been impressed with and will strongly consider selecting him 38th overall selection.

Brown's stock is rising, however, as he has/will meet with the Chargers, Eagles and Jets as well. Its possible that he could come off the board in the late first round.

Patriots Targeting Safeties

You can tell a lot about a team's draft strategy by tracking the players it invites for visits. And in the case of the Patriots, they couldn't make it more obvious.

The Pats either already have, or will soon, host William Moore, Louis Delmas and Patrick Chung. All three are viable options for the Patriots with one of their three 2nd round picks.

Safety isn't a major concern in New England, but it isn't a strength either. 2007 1st-round pick Brandon Merriweather is a little undersized to play strong safety, and James Sanders isn't exactly an elite free safety. While the Patriots could certainly get by with those two, an upgrade would be welcomed at either position. Chung and Moore may be the best options because of their ability to play either strong or free safety. Delmas is rated by some as the top safety in the draft class, but he's a little on the skinny side and will be limited to playing free safety in the pros.

Pro Days: Northern Illinois

Larry English, still a fringe first round prospect, had his chance to prove his worth on Saturday. Among the notables in attendance were Panthers GM Marty Hurney and director of college scouting Don Gregory. The Panthers are definitely in the market for a defensive end and may consider trading up for English if they liked what they saw.

English did his positional drills as a defensive end, but also did some drills dropping back into coverage. Its still tough to say whether or not he's a first rounder. He could come off the board as early as 18th to the Bears, or he could fall into the second round.

Pro Days: Ohio State

As always, Ohio State's pro day was must-see as four potential first round prospects took the field, along with a slew of others.

Perhaps the most anticipated drill of the day was Beanie Wells' forty-yard dash, and he did not disappoint. Wells, who ran a surprisingly low 4.59 at the combine, was clocked between 4.34 and 4.46 on Friday. While pro day times should always be taken with a grain of salt because of the benefits of running on the home turf, Wells' improvement was even greater than expected. His performance should solidify his place at the top of most team's draft boards at his position.

Unlike Wells, Malcolm Jenkins failed to improve upon his forty time. After posting a disappointing 4.55 in Indianapolis, Jenkins' stock fell considerably. He went from a sure top 10 pick, to hoping to come off the board in the top 15. Jenkins ran between a 4.46 and 4.53 on Friday - not nearly fast enough to improve he stock. He looks like a solid bet to still be on the board for either New Orleans or Houston, both if which could use his services in their secondary.

Other notes from Columbus:

• Brian Robiskie ran a 4.46 in the forty, but scouts aren't too concerned with his speed. It shouldn't impact his stock and he remains a potential late first-round pick.

• James Laurinaitis ran a 4.67. Nothing too impressive, but still an improvement over his time at the combine. I still think Laurinaitis is a top 10 talent, but his lack of speed will likely cause him to fall to the end of the first round.
  

Pro Days: Oregon

Oregon's pro day was held on Wednesday in front of representatives from 22 teams.

The top performer was unquestionably DE/LB Nick Reed. Oregon's leading sack artist the past two seasons posted an impressive 4.71 in the forty and did 24 reps on the bench. Reed is undersized for a defensive end and doesn't have enough experience at linebacker. However, he's a workout warrior that could climb up the draft boards and catch on somewhere as a pass rush specialist.

Patrick Chung chose to sit on most of numbers from the combine. He did, however, do positional drills and was reportedly impressive. He remains a potential 2nd or 3rd round prospect.

Running back Jeremiah Johnson slightly improved his forty time, climbing from 4.62 at the combine to 4.56. He clearly doesn't have elite speed, but I still like his potential in the pros. He's shifty, but has enough size to run between the tackles.

Pat White's Pro Day

Eight players worked out at West Virginia's pro day but everyone was there to watch Pat White.

With 25 teams in attendance, White only worked out at quarterback; a curious decision for a guy that has very little chance of making it as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

While someone may take a chance on him as early as the 3rd round, it would have been smart to at least leave his options open and do some drills at receiver. Never under estimate the power that a few good workouts can have on a draft stock. Remember Matt Jones? A mediocre prospect at quarterback, Jones worked out as a receiver and climbed into the 1st round. White could be leaving a lot of money on the table by declining to try his hand at receiver, despite knowing full well that he may end up there in the long run anyway.

Andre Smith's Pro Day

Alabama has a number of top prospects, but all eyes were on offensive tackle Andre Smith. After showing up at the combine overweight and unprepared, and then leaving early, Smith had a lot to prove. Overall, it was a mediocre performance.

His workout numbers weren't very impressive (5.33 forty, 19 reps on the bench). However, he reportedly looked very good in positional drills. It was probably enough to save his place in the mid-first round, but the questions about his ability to play left tackle remain unanswered.

I personally do not think he's a left tackle, and therefor is not worthy of a top 10 pick. He reminds me of Shawn Andrews, a very reliable guard with the potential to play right tackle.

Brandon Pettigrew Postpones Pro Day

Brandon Pettigrew was scheduled to work out on Wednesday, but he postponed his workout because of a pulled hamstring.

Pettigrew's workout is one of the more important ones this offseason. He's clearly the top player at his position, but he also doesn't fit the mold of recent first round tight end selections. He's an elite blocker, with only decent receiving skills.

Despite being the consensus top tight end, its tough to justify taking a blocking tight end in the first round. He'll need to hope he impresses the right team in hopes of sneaking into the late first round.

The Eagles and Falcons would appear to be likely destinations if he does find a place within the first 32 picks.

Pro Days: Oklahoma

Oklahoma held its pro day on Tuesday. A number of potential first-day selections worked out including OT Phil Loadholt and OG Duke Robinson.

Loadholt, who weighed in at 6'7", 332 lbs, was reportedly impressive in his drills. The knock against Loadholt has been his lack of quickness which may limit him to right tackle in the pros. He didn't improve his stock considerably but he likely proved his worth as a 3rd round prospect.

Nic Harris didn't have nearly as much success. He ran only a 4.84 in the forty, which essentially eliminates any chance of him playing safety in the NFL. He does have a chance of playing linebacker, but his forty time doesn't even put him among the average players at that position. At this point its possible that Harris doesn't even hear his named called at all.

Duke Robinson also worked out and struggled as well. He has the size and strength to excel at guard, but his quickness is questionable. He could fall to the third round.

Overall, it was a dissapointing day for Oklahoma. Despite their success as a team in 2008 its possible that no Sooners are selected on the first day of the draft.

Among the notables in attendance was Vikings head coach Brad Childress, pressuably focusing on the offensive linemen and potentially Juaquin Iglesias. Offensive line coaches for the Bills, Lions and Dolphins were also in attendance.

Pro Days: Utah

Paul Kruger and Sean Smith were on display at Utah's pro day on Monday. Among the notable on lookers was Panthers GM Marty Hurney.

Both players were impressive, most notably in the forty. Smith was clocked in the 4.4 range and Kruger in the 4.8 range. Both players are 2nd round prospects and solidified their position with their workouts.

The presence of Hurney likely means the Panthers are strongly considering a defensive end in the first or second round. While Hurkey was in Utah, John Fox was across the country scouting Michael Johnson at Georgia Tech. The Panthers strong interest in defensive linemen could mean they're willing to give in to Julius Peppers' request to be traded.

Pro Days: Georgia Tech

Michael Johnson impressed scouts, general managers and head coaches at Georgia Tech's pro day on Monday. He was clocked anywhere from 4.49 to 4.59 in the forty and was impressive in his drills.

With two head coaches in attendance (Mike Smith and John Fox) its possible that Johnson impressed enough people to climb into the first round. Both the Falcons and Panthers are potentially in the market for a first round defensive end, but its hard to imagine anyone handing a few million dollars to a completely unproven talent like Johnson. With that said, this is the NFL Draft and strange things are bound to happen.

Pro Days: Missouri

Missouri's first pro day was held on Thursday, but none of their top offensive prospects worked out. William Moore did, however, and was impressive.

Moore weighed in at 220 and wowed scouts by running in the 4.4 range. Some reports even have him clocked at 4.39.

His performance placed him solidly in the 2nd round range, with a chance to climb into the late 1st.

Moore had dinner with the Saints the other day. The Saints are in need of a free safety, and despite his size, Moore athleticism makes him an ideal candidate. Moore also stated that the Dolphins have shown a serious interest.

Pro Days: Troy

Sherrod Martin was reportedly very impressive at his Pro Day on Thursday. His forty times and vertical leap remained consistent with the numbers he posted at the combine, but his positional drills caught the eye of scouts.

NFL.com's Gil Brandt reports that 15 teams were in attendance, including the defensive backs coaches of the Ravens and Dolphins.

Thursday's Pro Day Preview

With the lack of participation at Missouri's pro day, the schools to watch today will be Syracuse, Troy and UNLV.

Syracuse fullback Tony Fiammetta is arguably the top prospect at his position and could earn a spot as high as the 4th round if he impresses today. Syracuse running back Curtis Brinkley also has a chance to improve draft stock this afternoon. Scouts will be hoping to see Brinkley run in the low 4.4 range.

UNLV running back Frank Summers has a lot riding on his workout. A 4.5 forty or better means he'll get a look at running back. If it falls into the 4.6 range, he'll be moved to fullback.

Troy's top prospect is once again a cornerback, Sherrod Martin. While Martin isn't the next Leodis McKelvin, he's hoping to run in the 4.3 range and potentially climb as high as the 4th round. He ran a 4.48 at the combine, but times always mysteriously drop on their home turf. He could also look to improve upon an already solid 36 inch vertical leap.

Daniel, Coffman Postpone Workouts

Suddenly Missouri's pro day isn't so interesting. Originally Jeremy Maclin, Chase Daniel and Chase Coffman all planned on working out today at the Tigers pro day. Maclin backed out about a week ago, after he decided he needed more time for his knee to heal after suffering a minor injury at the combine. Without his top receiver running, Chase Daniel wisely opted out as well. And without his quarterback throwing, Chase Coffman followed suit.

All three are expected to workout on March 19.

Pro Days: Wisconsin

Wisconsin held its pro day on Wednesday with 11 players working out.

RB P.J. Hill weighed in at 218 pounds, down 4 since the combine. Hill, who was listed at as much as 244 during college, has rapidly dropped weight in an effort to become quick enough for the NFL. He's still a 6th or 7th round prospect, the effort he's put in to get into shape is definitely impressing teams.

TE Travis Beckum, who is still recovering from a broken leg, worked out and ran a fairly impressive 4.59. The athleticism he showed was encouraging and definitely helped his stock. The injury concern was threatening his chances of being drafted at all at one point, but he showed enough today to solidify his place in the 4th-7th round range.

Two of the Badgers top prospects, linebackers Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy, sat out with injuries. They are expected to work out on April 2nd.

Pro Days: Texas A&M

The Aggies held their pro day on Wednesday, with Stephen McGee at the center of attention. While McGee wasn't even Texas A&M's starting quarterback this past season, he's arguably the Aggies most intriguing pro prospect.

Nearly every team had personnel in attendance including Jaguars quarterbacks coach David Shula.

McGee was reportedly impressive and his stocks continues to improve. He likely isn't starter material, but teams could view him as a Pat White-type prospect that could be useful in the wild cat formation.

Running back Mike Goodson also worked out and ran in the 4.4 range. His stock remains steady in the 3rd to 5th round range.

Pro Days: Baylor

According to Gil Brandt of NFL.com 15 teams showed up for Baylor's pro day on Tuesday, including three offensive line coaches (Cincinnati, Seattle and Jacksonville) which put Smith through drills.

Obviously the Bengals, Seahawks and Jaguars are potential suitors for Smith. The only top candidate to land Smith, the Rams, will hold a private workout with him on March 12.

Jason Smith To Do Limited Workouts at Pro Day

Baylor's pro day is tomorrow (Tuesday, March 3) and its likely to get a little more attention than usual. The Lions, Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Bengals, Raiders and Jaguars should all be in attendance if they're doing their homework properly.

Smith has stated that he will not run or lift, but he is willing to do positional workouts for the teams.

This is an important day for Smith despite the fact that he's already solidified his place as a top ten pick. The difference in money between No. 2 and No. 8 overall is significant, and he's a very realistic option for the Rams and possibly even the Lions.

No Crabtree for the Seahawks

The Seahawks have signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, essentially eliminating any chance of them selecting Michael Crabtree with the 4th overall selection.

Despite Crabtree's name popping up next to the Seahawks in many mock drafts I've remained steady in my prediction that they will not target a receiver in the draft.

The Seahawks are a well-run organization and understand the importance of building through the draft. Selecting a wide receiver in the top ten is a desperation move that rarely leads to immediate success. Teams that draft a wide receiver that high are like a little kid getting distracted by a shiny object on the ground. They can't keep their hands off because, for the short term, it will keep them entertained. But in the long run, the interest doesn't last.

Even the best receivers selected in the top ten (Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald) don't lead their teams to immediate success. Without a franchise quarterback and a solid offensive line there is nothing a receiver can do.

The Seahawks are not the type of team that falls into that trap. Now the Raiders... that's another story.